| 海河下游延伸期降水过程的低频预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 马宁,谢均,甘薇薇,等.海河下游延伸期降水过程的低频预测方法[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马宁 谢均 甘薇薇 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津市气候中心, 天津 300074; |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001-1) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对海河下游地区强降水过程与大气低频信号进行了诊断分析,结果表明雨日的低频涡度场在我国存在显著的偶极子型异常分布。根据这一异常分布特征构造了一对低频预报指数Dcurl35和Dcurl12以及相应的延伸期强降水过程的低频预报方法。进一步使用该低频预报方法进行了历史降水过程的回报检验和2014年强降水过程的预报试验,结果证明该方法对海河下游延伸期强降水过程有较好的预报能力,可以实际应用于海河下游延伸期强降水过程预报业务。
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| 关 键 词： | 延伸期预报 强降水过程 低频振荡 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-08-08 |
An Extended Range Forecast Method for the Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of Haihe River Using Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, Chian;2. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610071, China |
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| Abstract: | Analysis of the moderate or heavier precipitation process and atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation showed that an obvious dipole of intraseasonal relative vorticity exists during the rainy days. According to the dipole,a pair of intraseasonal indices for forecasting is created,as well as the forecasting method with the indices. With the indices,both tests of forecasting historical precipitation processes and an experiment for forecasting precipitation process in the summer of 2014 are made. The results indicate that the intraseasonal method for extended range forecast is quite capable of forecasting the moderate or heavier precipitation process over the lower reaches of Haihe River,which can be used in actual extended range forecast service. |
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