| 长江三峡工程防洪效益风险分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱元Shen 周全林.长江三峡工程防洪效益风险分析研究[J].水科学进展,1995,6(1):29-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱元Shen 周全林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水资源水文系 南京210098; |
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| 基金项目： | “七五”国家重点科技攻关项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在传统防洪效益计算的数学模型基础上,综合分析了水文、水流、工程施工和运行管理等多种不确定性,建立了长江中游防洪系统防洪效益的风险分析模型。计算结果表明,防洪效益的分布合理地反映了各种不确定性因素的综合影响,采用不同风险对应的防洪效益较未考虑各风险因子的不确定性时的防洪效益更加科学,更加合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性 风险因子 风险分析 敏感性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 1993-03-22 |
Risk Analysis of Flood Control Benefit of Three-Gorge Project |
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| Zhu Yuanshen,Zhou Quanlin.Risk Analysis of Flood Control Benefit of Three-Gorge Project[J].Advances in Water Science,1995,6(1):29-35. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Yuanshen Zhou Quanlin |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Hohai University, Nanjing 210098;2.Nanjing Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing 210024 |
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| Abstract: | Based on conventional model of flood control benefit,several kinds of uncertainties,including hydrological,hydraulic,structural,managemental and operational uncertainty,are synthetically analyzed. A risk model of flood control benefit of Three-Gorge Project has been established. It is indicated that the probability distribution of the benefit represents more reasonably,considering the impact of various uncertainties. |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty risk factor sensitivity 8nalysis risk analysis |
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