| 1976年云南龙陵7．4级地震序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 左兆荣,张国民.1976年云南龙陵7．4级地震序列分析[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(5):653-659. |
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| 作者姓名： | 左兆荣 张国民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国家地震局地球物理研究所，北京 100081;
2. 国家地展局分析预报中心，北京 100036 |
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| 摘 要： | 地震成核是地震孕育过程中的一个至关重要的阶段，加速是成核过程的一个属性，也是地震失稳破裂的一个必要条件．地震加速释放是成核在脆性层中的大地震的普遍前兆，且可将该加速过程简要地概括为地震释放速率正比于失稳破裂剩余时间的负幂．基于这一原理，对１９７６年５月２９日云南龙陵Ｍｓ７．４级地震序列进行回顾性分析，表明主震及后续显著地震的失稳破裂时间和震级可成功地被估算，但要求所测系数ｒ２
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| 关 键 词： | 地震成核 本构律 加速释放 地震前兆 地震预测 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 1994-12-05 |
ANALYSIS OF THE 1976 LONGLING, YUNNAN,EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE OF M_S 7.4 |
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| ZUO ZHAO-RONG,ZHANG GUO-MIN,WU JIAN-PING.ANALYSIS OF THE 1976 LONGLING, YUNNAN,EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE OF M_S 7.4[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1996,39(5):653-659. |
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| Authors: | ZUO ZHAO-RONG ZHANG GUO-MIN WU JIAN-PING |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Geophysics, SSB, Beijing 100081, China;
2. Centre of Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | Earthquake nucleation is a supremely important stage in the seismogenic prooesses.The acceleration is a property of nucleating process and is a necessary condition of earthquake failure,too.The seismic accelerating releasion is a universal precursory that a great earthquakes nucleate within the brittle seismogenic layer.This accellerating precess canbe summarized briefly as the seismic releasing rate to be proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure.Based on this princople, the foreshock sequenc of Longling earthquake, Yunna, of May 29, 1976,of Mｓ 7.4 was back analysed, It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitudes of main shock audits following significant shock can be predicted with success until the maximum coefficient r2 must be obtained. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake nucleation Constitutive law Accelerating releasion Earthquake precursor Earthquake prediction Uncertainty |
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