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| T63模式月动力延伸预报高度场的改进实验 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈丽娟,陈伯民,李维京,王锦贵.T63模式月动力延伸预报高度场的改进实验[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(Z1):92-96. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈丽娟 陈伯民 李维京 王锦贵 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京,100081;中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 2. 上海市气象科学研究所,上海,200030 3. 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 本文得到国家"九五"重中之重项目"短期气候预测系统的总装与业务化试验研究"课题(96-908-06)之96-908-06-01专题、国家自然科学基金项目(40175013和40035010)及国家气候中心自筹基金课题ZK2002C-06共同资助. |
| 摘 要： | 为克服T63模式月动力延伸预报中纬向平均环流的系统性误差较大的情形,文章利用NCEP/NCAR逐候再分析500 hPa高度场资料和非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法进行逐候纬向平均高度距平场预报.近30组个例的预报效果分析表明,就1～3旬总体而言,非线性时空序列预测方法对纬向平均高度距平场的预报优于持续性预报和模式动力延伸预报,体现了改善纬向平均高度场的能力.尤其是第3旬的预报,当持续性预报偏差与实况偏差明显增大、动力预报技巧相对于第1旬和第2旬降低时,相空间重构结果仍然保持一定的优势. |
| 关 键 词： | 月动力延伸预报 非线性时空序列预测 纬向平均高度场 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年7月19日 |
IMPROVED EXPERIMENTS FOR T63 POTENTIAL HEIGHTS BY MONTHLY DYNAMIC EXTENTED-RANGE FORECAST |
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| Chen Lijuan,Chen Bomin,Li Weijing,Wang Jingui.IMPROVED EXPERIMENTS FOR T63 POTENTIAL HEIGHTS BY MONTHLY DYNAMIC EXTENTED-RANGE FORECAST[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2005,16(Z1):92-96. | |
| Authors: | Chen Lijuan Chen Bomin Li Weijing Wang Jingui |
| Affiliation: | Chen Lijuan 1)2)3) Chen Bomin 4) Li Weijing 1) Wang Jingui 1) 1) |
| Abstract: | In order to overcome the systematic errors founded in monthly dynamical extended-range forecasts of zonal mean potential height for the T63L16 model, Employed were the local approximation of the phase-space reconstruction theory and the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. Used were also monthly pentad-mean historical data at 500 hPa geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Nearly 30 forecast experiments indicate that the first to third dekad results of the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method are better than those of the persistent forecast and the T63L16 model. Especialy when the score skill of the third dekad potential height by the persistent forecast is low and that by the dynamical forecast is also low compared to the first and second dekad results, the forecast skill of the nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method still keep its merit. |
| Keywords: | Monthly dynamical extended-range forecast Nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction Zonal mean potential height |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
