| 用冰川区水量(物质)平衡模型估计气候变化对冰川水资源影响的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赖祖铬,叶佰生.用冰川区水量(物质)平衡模型估计气候变化对冰川水资源影响的初步研究[J].水科学进展,1990,1(1):49-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赖祖铬 叶佰生 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大基金项目9488007资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出了一个水量(物质)平衡模型,估计可能的气候变化对冰川区水文的影响。以天山北坡乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例,假设温度升高1—4℃和相应的降水量变化为0,±10%,±20%组合成二十种气候变化情景进行计算。结果表明:目前的冰川融水量(Ri)是处在冰川退缩阶段的高值期,假设的二十种气候情景下的Ri均小于此值。因此,未来全球气候变暖,将会导致我国西北高寒山区以冰川融水补给为主的河川径流量逐渐减少。
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| 关 键 词： | 平衡模型 气候 冰川 水 资源 |
| 收稿时间： | 1989-11-20 |
The Application of Water (Mass) Balance Model in Glacierized Area to Assessing the Climate Impact on Glacial Water Resources |
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| Lai Zuming,Ye Baisheng,Zhu Shousen.The Application of Water (Mass) Balance Model in Glacierized Area to Assessing the Climate Impact on Glacial Water Resources[J].Advances in Water Science,1990,1(1):49-54. |
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| Authors: | Lai Zuming Ye Baisheng Zhu Shousen |
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| Affiliation: | Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| Abstract: | A water (mass) balance model is suggested, which can be used to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of plausible climatic changes in glacierized area.Taking an example of Glacier No.1,Headwaters of Urumqi River on the northern slop of Tianshan Mts., hypothetical twenty climatic change scenarios are discussed,which are combinations of temperature incrcase from 1-4℃ with precipitation change of 0, ±10% and ±20%. The results show that the present runoff yielded in the glacierized area is the maximum during the period of glacial retreat, higher than that among the twenty hypothetical scenarios. Therefore the runoff of the rivers fed by glaciers in the cold high mountains in Northwest China would decrease gradually as the global climate becomes wanner. |
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