Is there a temperature or hydroclimate signal in tree-ring width of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper in the Wulan region, Qinghai Province?
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摘要:
青藏高原东北部是对全球气候变化高度敏感的区域。由于其具有典型干旱、半干旱的气候特征, 一般认为该地区树木的径向生长主要受水分条件控制。然而, 已有研究发现, 在该区域乌兰-都兰及以东地区, 影响树木径向生长的气候因子较为复杂, 既有水分, 也有温度因素。本研究分析了乌兰地区青海云杉和祁连圆柏树轮宽度对气候的响应特征, 并与德令哈地区明确指示降水的树轮宽度序列进行比较。结果表明: 1)在1956~2010 A.D. 间, 青海云杉树轮宽度记录了当年7月的温度信号, 而祁连圆柏树轮宽度与当年7月温度、5~6月降水及5~7月帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)均显著相关; 2)两个树种径向生长对气候的响应在1970~1980 A.D. 开始发生了变化: 对当年7月温度的响应逐渐增强, 而对前一年7月至当年6月降水的响应呈现出先下降再上升的趋势, 同时对生长季5~7月PDSI的响应逐渐减弱; 3)在1789~2010 A.D. 更长的时段内, 乌兰地区青海云杉和祁连圆柏与德令哈指示降水变化的树轮序列高度相关。以上结果表明, 在器测记录以前的时段, 乌兰地区青海云杉和祁连圆柏树轮宽度仍主要反映水分条件(降水和干湿)的变化, 而器测记录以来其对当年7月温度的显著响应可能与近几十年来的西北地区暖湿化有关。未来在树木生长-气候响应模式发生转变的地区, 需要综合考虑不同时间长度的树轮-气候响应关系来进一步明确树轮序列所包含的气候信息。
Abstract:The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is highly vulnerable to global climate change. Due to the arid and semi-arid conditions, hydroclimate is widely considered to be the factor dominating the radial growth of trees in this region. However, studies have revealed that tree-ring width(TRW) in Wulan and its eastern regions show more complicated climatic responses, to both temperature and hydroclimate variables. In order to investigate the potential of TRW for reconstructing the regional climate, this study analyzed climatic responses of TRW of Qinghai spruce(90 cores) and Qilian juniper(141 cores) in the Wulan region, Qinghai Province. We further compared these chronologies with one composite TRW series developed in the Delingha region which clearly exhibits a robust hydroclimate signal. The results suggest that: (1)Between 1956 and 2010 A.D., the Qinghai spruce TRW recorded a significant signal of July temperatures of the growing year, while the Qilian juniper TRW responded strongly to July temperatures, precipitations from May to June and Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) from May to July.(2)The climatic responses of TRW of the two species appeared to have been shifted around 1970~1980 A.D. The effect of growing season temperatures on the radial growth of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper gradually increased, while the responses to hydroclimate gradually weakened through time, with a U-shaped response to precipitations from previous July to current June for TRW of Qilian juniper. (3)Over a longer period of 1789~2010 A.D., both species were highly correlated with a hydroclimate-sensitive TRW chronology of Qilian juniper developed from the Delingha region. These findings suggest that the recent warming and humidification may have been a major cause of the increasing temperature control on the radial growth of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper in the Wulan region. In contrast to a temperature signal, TRW variations of the two species are more likely dominated by hydroclimatic factors in earlier periods not covered by instrumental records. Future studies are needed to account for growth-climate response at different time spans, especially in regions where this relationship may have been potentially shifted, to better understand the potential of long tree-ring series for climate reconstructions.
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Key words:
- radial growth /
- northeastern Tibetan Plateau /
- climate change /
- Qinghai spruce /
- Qilian juniper
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图 1
研究区域概况
Figure 1.
Study area and regional climate.(a)Location of the sampling site and the Dulan Meteorological Station; (b)Growing environment of sampled Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper; (c)Monthly mean temperature and precipitation at the Dulan Meteorological Station from 1956 A.D. to 2010 A.D.; (d) Annual mean temperature, total annual precipitation and PDSI from Dulan Meteorological Station and the CRU TS 4.06 dataset
图 2
树轮宽度年表及复本量
Figure 2.
Ring-width chronologies and sample replication.(a)Standard ring-width chronologies of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper in comparison with a tree-ring width series developed in the Delingha region, and the dotted vertical line shows the earliest year(1789 A.D.)used for the analysis. Chronologies presented are transformed to Z-Score; (b)Sample replication and subsample signal strength(SSS)for tree-ring data from the Wulan region
图 3
青海云杉和祁连圆柏树轮宽度标准年表与月份气候要素的相关性分析
Figure 3.
Correlation analysis between standard ring-width chronologies of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper and monthly climate variables. Upper and middle panels: Correlation analysis of monthly climate variables with Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper in the Wulan region. Lower panel: Correlation analysis between the Delingha series and monthly climatic variables. The significance correlations are shown in filled color bars(P < 0.05). A negative abscissa indicates the month of the previous year
图 4
青海云杉和祁连圆柏树轮宽度年表与月份气候要素一阶差分序列的相关性分析
Figure 4.
Correlation analysis between first-order differenced ring-width chronologies of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper and monthly climate variables. Upper and middle panels: Correlation analysis of monthly climate variables with Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper in the Wulan region. Lower panel: Correlation analysis between the Delingha series and monthly climatic variables. The significance correlations are shown in filled color bars(P < 0.05). A negative abscissa indicates the month of the previous year
图 5
树轮宽度与气象数据月份组合的比较
Figure 5.
Comparison between tree-ring width and monthly climate data. Left column: Comparison of the first-order differenced series of tree-ring chronologies(Qinghai spruce: SP_diff, Qilian juniper: JN_diff)with climate data (clim)in the Wulan region during 1956~2010 A.D. Right column: 31-year moving correlation analysis between the first-order differenced tree-ring chronologies (Qinghai spruce: SP_diff, Qilian juniper: JN_diff, Delingha series: DLH_diff)and climate data in the Wulan and Delingha regions. The correlation coefficient values are centered on the middle year of each 31-year window. For example, the correlation coefficient at 1966 A.D. indicates that this correlation is calculated for the time period between 1956~1981 A.D. The dots on the curve in the right column show a significant correlation(P < 0.05)
图 6
三条树轮宽度序列间的31年滑动相关系数
Figure 6.
31-year moving correlation coefficients between three ring-width chronologies. SP: Data for Qinghai spruce in the Wulan region; JN: Data for Qilian juniper in the Wulan region; DLH: Ring-width chronology in the Delingha region. The upper panel displays the moving correlations for the first-order differenced chronologies, whereas the lower panel shows the analysis for standard ring-width chronologies
表 1
乌兰地区青海云杉与祁连圆柏树轮宽度的统计特征
Table 1.
Ring-width characteristics of Qinghai spruce and Qilian juniper from the Wulan region
统计项 祁连圆柏 青海云杉 平均轮宽a 0.268 1.595 树间相关系数a 0.244 0.302 树内相关系数a 0.64 — 一阶自相关相关系数b 0.355 0.517 信噪比b 28.789 38.507 平均敏感度b 0.212 0.195 样本总体代表性(EPS)b 0.966 0.975 SSS >0.85起始年(树数)b 101(16) 1789(17) a—基于原始树轮宽度数据的统计结果，b—基于去除生长趋势后数据的统计结果；由于青海云杉每棵树仅获取了一个样芯的宽度数据，无法计算树内相关系数 
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表 2
乌兰地区树轮宽度与德令哈序列的相关分析
Table 2.
Correlations analysis between tree-ring chronologies in the Wulan and Delingha regions
分析时段 树轮序列 乌兰-青海云杉 乌兰-祁连圆柏 1789~2010 A.D.标准年表 乌兰-青海云杉 — — 乌兰-祁连圆柏 0.512 — 德令哈序列 0.517 0.672 1789~2010 A.D.一阶差分年表 乌兰-青海云杉 — — 乌兰-祁连圆柏 0.675 — 德令哈序列 0.595 0.863
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