| 一种汛期降水分布的客观集成预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 周家斌,张海福.一种汛期降水分布的客观集成预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(Z1):93-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周家斌 张海福 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所!北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目!“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”第四课题 ( 96-90 8-0 4 )的资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文应用么枕生提出的中心聚类方法确定每个台站所能代表的站 ,在这些台站上对降水距平百分率进行平均 .这种平均对每个代表站逐站进行 ,由此得出的降水分布作为集成预报的对象 .应用最小预测误差平方和逐步算法逐站建立集成预报方程 .应用这一方法对在国家气候中心汛期预报中使用多年的 4个旱涝预报模型进行了集成预报试验 ,然后对每张预报图进行评分 .结果说明集成预报的评分高于 4个原始预报模型的评分 .对于 1 998年长江中下游和嫩江流域的异常洪涝 ,集成预报的评分亦高于 4个原始预报模型的评分
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| 关 键 词： | 集成预报 降水分布 客观方法 |
AN OBJECTIVE METHOD OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST ABOUT PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN RAINY SEASON |
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| Zhou Jiabin,Zhang Haifu.AN OBJECTIVE METHOD OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST ABOUT PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN RAINY SEASON[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(Z1):93-97. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Jiabin Zhang Haifu |
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| Abstract: | A method of ensemble forecast about precipitation distribution in rainy season is presented. The central cluster technique proposed by Yao Zhensheng is used to determine the stations which can be represented by a designated station. The mean percent departures of rainfall in these stations are evaluated and are used as predictands for the designated station. Then the prediction equation is constructed using the stepwise algorithm and the square sum of prediction errors. Finally, an ensemble forecast experiment is made by four models used in the operational forecasts in the National Center of China. The score of each forecasting chart is evaluated. And the results show that the score of ensemble forecast is higher than that of any other models mentioned. And the score of ensemble forecast for anomalous flooding over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Nengjiang River valley in 1998 is also higher. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble forecast Precipitation distribution Objective method |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
