| 黄河流域水资源-能源-粮食的协同优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭少明,郑小康,王煜,蒋桂芹.黄河流域水资源-能源-粮食的协同优化[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):681-690. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭少明 郑小康 王煜 蒋桂芹 |
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| 作者单位： | 黄河勘测规划设计有限公司, 河南 郑州 450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0404404；2017YFC0404604） |
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| 摘 要： | 黄河流域是中国重要能源和粮食主产区，然而水资源短缺已成为制约能源、粮食发展的关键要素。为优化流域水资源、能源、粮食之间的关系，引入协同学原理构建水资源-能源-粮食整体分析框架，建立具有总分结构、互馈关联的协同优化模型，采用多要素均衡智能算法，提出黄河流域粮食生产、能源开发与水资源调配一体优化的布局方案。结果表明，通过水资源-能源-粮食协同优化，2030年增加流域供水量23.98亿m3；优化了流域粮食生产布局，人均粮食产量提高12%；优选了能源产业规模和结构，煤炭开采、石油加工和火电总装机分别增加了2.86倍、4.08倍和0.80倍；在满足生活、生态环境用水的同时实现了粮食增收、能源增产。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 能源 粮食 协同优化 布局 黄河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-12-21 |
Study on water-energy-food collaborative optimization for Yellow River basin |
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| PENG Shaoming,ZHENG Xiaokang,WANG Yu,JIANG Guiqin.Study on water-energy-food collaborative optimization for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):681-690. |
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| Authors: | PENG Shaoming ZHENG Xiaokang WANG Yu JIANG Guiqin |
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| Affiliation: | Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | As an important energy and major grain producing area in China, the Yellow River basin has had a shortage of water resources, becoming a key factor in the restriction of energy and food development. And the system risk of water, energy and food has been escalated. An overall analysis framework model of water-energy-food based on the synergetic theory was established in order to optimize the relationship between water resources, energy, and food. Further, a total partition structure model was built, also known as the water-energy-food collaborative optimization model with an inter-feedback function. The support, restriction, and interactive bond mechanism and intelligent multi-factor balancing algorithm were also studied. Finally, the integration of the collaborative optimization distribution scheme and strategy for food production, energy, and water resource utilization in the Yellow River basin was demonstrated. Results show that, by collaborative optimization and comprehensive allocation of water resources, energy, and food, the average annual water supply is expected to be 53.560 billion m3, increased by 2.398 billion m3. Both the food production distribution and energy production structure and scale are to be optimized; with an increase of 12%, per capita yield of food will reach 416 kg. Coal mining, oil mining, and total thermal power installed capacity will increase by 2.86 times, 4.08 times, and 0.80 times, respectively. According to the results, a guaranteed degree of water resources for energy development and food production security can be significantly improved, with domestic and ecological water demand given the highest priority in the model. Meanwhile, increased food and energy production can be realized, as well. |
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| Keywords: | water resources energy food collaborative optimization distribution Yellow River basin |
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