| 南渡江流域暴雨洪涝致灾临界面雨量的确定 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张亚杰,吴慧,吴胜安,陈升孛.南渡江流域暴雨洪涝致灾临界面雨量的确定[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):731-740. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张亚杰 吴慧 吴胜安 陈升孛 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.海南省气候中心，海口 570203 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 海南省气象局科技创新项目(HN2013MS09) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于海南省南渡江流域龙塘水文站1976—1987年和2009—2010年的逐日气象水文资料，采用HBV-D水文模型，通过对模型参数率定和验证，确定了适合南渡江流域的HBV-D水文模型最优化参数。结果表明:该模型在1976—1981年率定期、1982—1987年验证期和2009—2010年验证期的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.891，0.831，0.953，相关系数分别为0.944，0.912，0.977，达到了0.01显著性水平。通过建立的南渡江流域HBV-D水文模型进行模型反演，确定了不同前期水位 (7 m，8 m，9 m，10 m，11 m) 的面雨量和水位关系，根据龙塘水文站的警戒水位、10年重现期水位、30年重现期水位、50年重现期水位作为不同等级预警的临界判别条件，最终确定了不同前期水位的致灾临界面雨量指标。
|
| 关 键 词： | 南渡江流域 HBV-D水文模型 致灾临界面雨量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-02-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 9/9/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Determination of Area Precipitation Thresholds of Rainstorm-flood Hazard in the Nandu River Basin |
| |
| Zhang Yajie
,
Wu Hui
,
Wu Shengan
,
Chen Shengbei.Determination of Area Precipitation Thresholds of Rainstorm-flood Hazard in the Nandu River Basin[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(6):731-740. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhang Yajie Wu Hui Wu Shengan Chen Shengbei |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Hainan Provincial Climate Center, Haikou 5702032.Hainan Provincial Meteorological Service Center, Haikou 570203 |
| |
| Abstract: | Using hydrological model to determine area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm-flood hazard is a tendency of hydrological and meteorological forecast. The Nandu River Basin, locating on the north edge of Hainan Island, is the largest basin of tropical regions in China. And the frequent flood of the Nandu River Basin attracts wide public concern. The HBV (Hydrologiska Byr?ns Vattenbalansavdelning) model is a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model with multiple versions, used in more than 40 countries and regions around the world. Using HBV-D model which is suitable for large-scale basin, the basin hydrologic characteristics of the Nandu River Basin are simulated and the area precipitation threshold values are determined. These effects may also provide scientific evidence for early warning in the Nandu River Basin.The model is run in terms of observed daily precipitation, air temperature during 1976-1987 and 2009-2010, and the simulated runoff is verified with corresponding hydrological observations of Longtang Hydrologic Station. Taking 1976-1981 as calibration period, several model sensitivity parameters are selected and calibrated by programming. Periods of 1982-1987 and 2009-2010 are selected for model validating, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and correlation coefficient are evaluated. Verifications show that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes are 0.891, 0.831 and 0.953, and correlation coefficients are 0.944, 0.912 and 0.977, both passing the test of 0.01 level in 3 periods. It indicates that the model can accurately simulate the Nandu River Basin hydrological characteristics. And it's able to determine area precipitation threshold values of rainstorm-flood hazard in the Nandu River Basin.The curve of stream flow and water level is simulated with historical hydrographic data of 1976-1987 when the water level is greater than or equal to 7 m. Curves of area precipitation and different previous water-levels (7 m, 8 m, 9 m, 10 m and 11 m) are determined by hydrological model HBV-D of the Nandu River Basin. Curves can calculate how many meters the water level will rise when storm comes, in the condition of five previous water-levels. Finally, according to water levels of warning, 10-year return period, 30-year return period and 50-year return period as critical criterions for different warning grades, the area precipitation thresholds in different previous water-levels are determined.The accuracy of area precipitation threshold values are verified using observations of four floods. The result indicates that these values are suitable for forewarning, but the missing of warning is still inevitable. To improve timeliness and accuracy, hourly rolling forecast and early warning can be carried out. |
| |
| Keywords: | the Nandu River Basin hydrological model of HBV D area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm flood hazard |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
|
