丁一汇,柳艳菊,梁苏洁,马晓青,张颖娴,司东,梁萍,宋亚芳,张锦. 2014. 东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J]. 气象学报, 72(5):835-852, doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.079
东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系
Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change
投稿时间：2014-02-21  修订日期：2014-07-04
DOI：10.11676/qxxb2014.079
中文关键词:  东亚冬季风  年代际变化  北极涛动  太平洋年代际振荡  全球气候变化
英文关键词:East Asian winter monsoon  Interdecadal variability  Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM)  Arctic Oscillation (AO)  Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)  Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO)  Global climate change
基金项目:973项目（2012CB417205和2013CB430202）、自然基金重点项目（41130960）、行业专项（GYHY201406001）和国家科技支撑计划项目（2009BAC51B02）。
作者单位
丁一汇 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
柳艳菊 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
梁苏洁 天津市气候中心, 天津, 300074 
马晓青 北京市气象局, 北京, 100089 
张颖娴 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
司东 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
梁萍 上海市气候中心, 上海, 200030 
宋亚芳 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
张锦 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
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中文摘要:
      对近年来中外关于东亚冬季风（EAWM）年代际变化问题研究进展做了回顾和评述，主要包括以下3个方面内容：（1）东亚冬季风明显受到全球气候变化的影响，从20世纪50年代开始，中国冬季气温经历了一次冷期（从20世纪50年代延续到80年代初中期），一次暖期（从20世纪80年代初中后期延续到21世纪初）和近10—15年（约从1998年开始）出现的气候变暖趋缓期（也称气候变暖停顿期）。（2）东亚冬季风主要表现出强—弱—强3阶段的特征，即从1950年到1986/1987年，明显偏强；从1986/1987年冬季开始，东亚冬季风减弱；约2005年之后，东亚冬季风开始由弱转强。与东亚冬季风的年代际变化特征相对应，东亚冬季大气环流以及中国冬季气温和寒潮都表现出一致的年代际变化。（3）东亚冬季风的年代际变化与大气环流和太平洋海表温度（SST）的区域模态变化密切相关。当北半球环状模/北极涛动（NAM/AO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）处于负（正）位相，东亚冬季风偏强（弱），中国冬季气温偏低（高）。此外，北大西洋年代尺度振荡（AMO）对东亚冬季风也有重要影响，在AMO负位相时，对应东亚冷期（强冬季风），正位相对应暖期（弱冬季风）。因而海洋的年代际变化是造成东亚冬季风气候脉动的主要自然原因，而全球气候变暖对东亚冬季风强度的减弱也有明显影响。
英文摘要:
      This paper presents a concise summary of the studies on interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) from three main perspectives. (1) The EAWM has been significantly affected by global climate change. Winter temperature in China has experienced three stages of variations from the beginning of the 1950s: a cold period (from the beginning of the 1950s to the early or mid 1980s), a warm period (from the early or mid 1980s to the early 2000s), and a hiatus period in recent 10 years (starting from 1998). (2) The strength of the EAWM has also varied in three stages: a stronger winter monsoon period (1950 to 1986/1987), a weaker period (1986/1987 to 2004/2005), and a strengthening period (from 2005). Corresponding to the interdecadal variations of the EAWM, the East Asian atmospheric circulation, winter temperature of China, and the occurrence of cold waves over China have all exhibited coherent interdecadal variability. The upper-level zonal circulation was stronger, the mid-tropospheric trough over East Asia was deeper with stronger downdrafts behind the trough, and the Siberian high was stronger during the cold period than during the warm period. (3) The interdecadal variations of the EAWM seem closely related to major modes of variability in the atmospheric circulation and the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). When the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were in negative (positive) phase, the EAWM was stronger (weaker), leading to colder (warmer) temperatures in China. In addition, the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) coincided with relatively cold (warm) temperatures and stronger (weaker) EAWMs. It is thus inferred that the interdecadal variations in the ocean may be one of the most important natural factors influencing long-term variability in the EAWM, although global warming may have also played a significant role in weakening the EAWM.
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