北京地区体感温度误差订正方法研究
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P49

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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)资助(XDA19040202)


Research on error correction of apparent temperature in Beijing
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    摘要:

    基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range weather Forecasts,ECMWF)模式的预报数据和北京地区气象站点的观测数据,使用两种机器学习算法(线性回归和梯度提升回归树)对站点的体感温度进行误差订正,并采用均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)对预报效果进行评估,进一步与传统订正方法模式输出统计(Model Output Statistics,MOS)得到的订正结果进行对比。结果表明:线性回归、梯度提升回归树、MOS和ECMWF预报得到的平均RMSE分别为3.12、3.06、3.45、4.06℃,即机器学习算法明显优于MOS和ECMWF模式原始预报。机器学习订正方法不仅在平原地区取得了较好的效果,在高海拔站点的订正效果更加突出,为北京冬奥会复杂山地条件下赛事正常运行提供了一定的技术保障。

    Abstract:

    Based on the forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and the observational data of the meteorological sites in Beijing, two machine learning algorithms (linear regression and gradient boosting regression tree) are used to correct the errors of apparent temperature. The prediction result was evaluated through the root mean square error (RMSE), and the result are also compared with the corrected results obtained by the traditional MOS method for further evaluation. The results show that the average RMSE predicted by linear regression, gradient-lifting regression tree, MOS and ECMWF model are 3.12, 3.06, 3.45 and 4.06℃, respectively. It is found that the results corrected through the machine learning algorithms are significantly better than those generated from MOS and Original forecast of ECMWF model. The machine learning correction method not only performs well in the plain area, but also achieve prominent results of correction effect with the data from high altitude sites, providing a certain technical guarantee for the normal operation of the Beijing Winter Olympics under complex mountain conditions.

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武略,焦瑞莉,王毅,夏江江,严中伟,李昊辰.北京地区体感温度误差订正方法研究.气象科学,2022,42(2):261-269 WU Lüe, JIAO Ruili, WANG Yi, XIA Jiangjiang, YAN Zhongwei, LI Haochen. Research on error correction of apparent temperature in Beijing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2022,42(2):261-269

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  • 收稿日期:2020-01-05
  • 最后修改日期:2020-05-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-31
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