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气象:2008,34(6):35-40
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江淮入梅异常的强信号及其对入梅的影响
(1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 210044;2.天津市气象台)
Previous Stronger Signal of Anomalous Meiyu Onset over Yangtse Huaihe River Valley and Its Analysis
(1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,NUIST,Nanjing 210044;2. Tianjin Meteorological Observatory;3.Tianjin Meteorological Observatory)
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投稿时间:2007-12-26    修订日期:2008-04-28
中文摘要: 江淮入梅具有显著的年际变化特征。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集以及NOAA提供的全球射出 长波辐射(OLR)和扩展重建海温(ERSST)等资料, 采用相关分析和合成分析等方法研究了江淮 入梅异常的前兆强信号,并初步分析了其影响入梅的可能机制。结果表明,ENSO事件是影响 江淮入梅早晚较强的前兆信号。前期冬春季出现ENSO暖位相时有利于入梅开始偏晚,ENSO冷 位相出现时入梅往往偏早。前期冬季2月和春季Nino 4区的海温异常能较好地预测入梅早晚 ,具有短期气候预测的指示意义和实用性。ENSO暖位相年,亚澳“大陆桥”、菲律宾、西太 平洋暖池以及印度半岛附近对流偏弱,不利于西太平洋副热带高压北跳和印度夏季风爆发, 东亚地区大气环流季节转换偏晚,入梅因而偏晚;ENSO冷位相年情况则相反。
Abstract:Meiyu onset over Yangtse Huaihe river valley is of obvious features of inter annual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and NOAA OLR an d ERSST data, the previous stronger signal of anomalous Meiyu onset over Yangtse Huaihe river valley is investigated by employing correlation and composite analy ses. Preliminary analyses for the impact of the stronger signal on the Meiyu ons et are also studied. The results show that ENSO(Southern Oscillation) events are the previous stronger signal. The Meiyu begins late (early) with the warm (cool) phase of ENSO. The SSTA of Nino4 in February and spring can be regar ded as credible implications for forecasting the onset of Meiyu. The weak convective activ ities around the Asian Australian “land bridge", Philippines, the western Paci fi c warm pool and Indian peninsula correspond with the warm phase of ENSO. The wea k convective activities around the regions above mentioned may not facilitate n orthward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high and the outbreak of Indian summer monsoon . Consequently, the seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation in the easter n Asian regions is late, which causes the late onset of Meiyu.
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汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,吕江津,吴彬贵,2008.江淮入梅异常的强信号及其对入梅的影响[J].气象,34(6):35-40.
Wang Jing,He Jinhai,Liu Xuanfei,Lü Jiangjin,Wu Bingui,2008.Previous Stronger Signal of Anomalous Meiyu Onset over Yangtse Huaihe River Valley and Its Analysis[J].Meteor Mon,34(6):35-40.