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中文摘要: 比照路径相似台风的降雨制作台风降雨预报是台风业务预报的常规方法之一。但0307号台风伊布都和0312号台风科罗旺的路径虽然极为相似,降雨强度却有明显差异。分析显示:0307号台风伊布都在西进过程中,副热带高压持续控制江南、华南大部至南海地区并不断加强西伸,东风急流减弱和θse值较小不利于台风降水云系的发展;而0312号台风科罗旺在进入南海前,南海受辐合带控制,在其西进过程中副热带高压不断减弱东退,东风急流加强,有利于台风右前方螺旋云带发展。这是造成科罗旺距离深圳虽远于伊布都,但降水却更大的主要原因。
中文关键词: 台风，副热带高压，涡度，水汽
Abstract:TC precipitation prediction based on corresponding track-similar TC precipitation is one of operational TC precipitation forecasting methods.Typhoon Imbudo (0307),Krovanh (0312) and a Tropical Depression have similar tracks and both brought about heavy rainfall in Shenzhen,but their precipitation intensity have different features.The analysis shows that when typhoon Imbudo moved westward to the Jiangnan area, the Huanan area and the South China Sea were gradually controlled by the subtropical anticyclone. In this process the subtropical anticyclone becomes stronger and extends west. The easterly jet stream subsides, and the θse value is low. These factors are unsuitable to the development of Imbudo's precipitation cloud system.However, the South China Sea is controlled by a convergence zone before Typhoon Krovanh enters the area. In Krovanh's westward process, the subtropical anticyclone subsides, and the easterly jet stream becomes stronger. These factors are conducive to the development of the spiral band on the right front side of Krovanh. This is the reason that Krovanh brings more rainfall to Shenzhen than Imbudo though it is farther than the latter from the city.
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曹春燕,江崟,朱小雅,2005.两个登陆粤西台风对深圳影响的比较分析[J].气象,31(9):71-74.
,2005.Analysis of Two Typhoons Landing on Western Guangdong[J].Meteor Mon,31(9):71-74.
曹春燕,江崟,朱小雅,2005.两个登陆粤西台风对深圳影响的比较分析[J].气象,31(9):71-74.
,2005.Analysis of Two Typhoons Landing on Western Guangdong[J].Meteor Mon,31(9):71-74.