| 摘要: |
| 提出一种基于主分量典型相关分析(PC-CCA)的广义典型混合回归模式,用于建立NINO海区SST预报方案。该模式引入EEOF、PRESS准则和集成预报等技术思想,在优选物理因子,确定最佳模式参数的基础上,对NINO海区海温指数所作的超前1-4季度预报试验取得优良效果。试验表明,该模式方案性能稳定,其总体预报技术水平已达到美国NOAA/NWS/NCEP/气候诊断公报(CPC)所用同类模式水平。而本模式方案预报同类产品所需因子数远少于CPC方法。这就有可能为建立我国的ENSO业务监测系统提供有益的基础。 |
| 关键词: ENSO预报 典型回归 预测方案 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家九五攻关项目96-908-04-02-4课题资助论文 |
|
| A GENERAL I ZED MODEL USING CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION AND FORECASTING TEST TO ENSO |
|
Jiang Zhihong1, Ding Yuguo1, Zhou Qinfang2
|
|
1.Manjing institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044;2.National Climate Center
|
| Abstract: |
| In terms of the method of a variant of principal component-canonical correlation analysis proposed by Barnett and Preisendorfer (PC-CCA), a scheme to forecast SSTA over the area of Nino is explored, using the on criterion of PRESS.the idea of EEOF and consensus forecast. The prediction test has got excellent results in the leading forecast of 1-4 seasons of SST index over Nino areas,which are based on fine physical factors and optimal parameters of the model.Experiments indicate that the forecast skill is fine and stable. and being similar to that of identical model in Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (published by NOAA/NWS/NCEP), a fact which appears quite promising in the ENSO operational forecast of National Climate Center. |
| Key words: ENSO forecast Canonical regression Prediction scheme |
