| 阿布都克日木.阿巴司,王荣梅,努尔帕提曼•买买提热依木.1986-2010年巴楚木本植物物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(3):63~68 |
| 1986-2010年巴楚木本植物物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应分析 |
| Analysis of woody plants phonological variation characters and Its Responses to climate change from 1986 to 2010 in Bachu county |
| 投稿时间：2013-04-22 修订日期：2013-08-01 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 巴楚县 木本植物 植物物候 气候变化 响应 |
| 英文关键词:Bachu county woody plant plant phenology climate change response |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用巴楚国家基本气候站1986-2010年的气象观测数据和地面物候观测资料，采用气候倾向率和气候趋势系数方法，分析气温、降水、日照时数的变化特征；木本植物选用新疆杨(Populus bolleanalanche)，垂柳(Salix babylonica)，杏树(Prunus armeniaca)，苹果树(Malus pumila)，沙枣树(Fdeagnys Qxycarpasehlecht)，对植物物候期与气候变化的相互关系进行研究。研究表明：近25年来巴楚气候增暖现象较明显，增温率为0.18～0.95℃/10a，春、秋季变暖的趋势大于冬、夏季；降水量变化趋势不明显，整体呈现减少趋势，气候倾向率为-0.61 mm/10a，春、夏降水量呈减少趋势，冬、秋两季降水量均呈增多趋势;年日照时数呈减少趋势，气候倾向率为-30.34h/10a。除春季日照时数表现为增加趋势外，其他季节均表现为不同程度的减少趋势。其中，以冬季减幅最显著，平均减少-27.09h/10a。近25a来喀什木本植物芽开放期、展叶始期、开花始期表现为一致的提前趋势, 叶变色始期和落叶始期表现推迟的趋势；影响植物物候期的主要气候因子为气温和日照时数，随气温升高、日照时数增多，植物生长季延长。木本植物春季物候期与春季气温和春季日照时数呈负相关，且相关性显著，而与冬季气温和冬季日照时数几乎没有显著相关性。木本植物物候与秋季温度呈正相关，秋季气温升高，物候期推迟。在生产生活中，根据植物的物候期变化安排农、林业生产有重要的意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the paper, we have collected climatic data and monitor data about plant phenology from 1986 to 2010 of Bachu county, for analyze changing characteristic of temperature, precipitation and sunshine durations, and discuss the effect on phenology of Populus bolleanalanche, Salix babylonica, Prunus armeniaca, Fdeagnys Qxycarpasehlecht, Malus pumila, Pyrus bretschneideri, by calculating climate trend coefficient and climate tendency ratio. Research indicated that the temperature increased obviously, the warming rate was 0.18-0.95℃/10a, The warming trend in spring and autumn is more than that in winter and summer. the annual precipitation showed a decrease trend in recent 25 years, and decreased by-0.61mm/10a, the downward trend in precipitation in spring and summer, while the upward trend in winter and autumn. The annual sunshine hours in Bachu in recent 25 years presented decrease trend, and the climate tendency rate was-30.34h/10a. Except in spring, the sunshine hours all presented decrease trend at different degrees in other seasons. The most significant decrease amplitude (-27.09h/10a) occurred in winter. kashi woody plant leaf unfolding prime, flower stage (the whole leaf discoloration and defoliation) showed the same trend in advance (delayed star) in near 25a, The increasing trend of precipitation was more obvious and the precipitation increased at the rate of 12.14mm/10a, The trend of climate change in Bachu county was becoming warmer and the trend is clearly an increase in precipitation. The decade, annual and seasonal sunshine durations in Bachu county have been in a increase trend since recent 25 years; seasonally, the Incremental of sunshine duration is the most in spring; The main climate factor affecting plant Phenology is the temperature and sunshine durations. With the temperature rising and An increase in the number sunshine durations, plant’s growing period extends. The arbor’s phenology in spring has correlativity with the temperature and sunshine durations in spring， has notable correlativity nearly with the temperature and sunshine durations in winter. there was a positive correlation between the phenological stages and autumn temperature，the phenological stages were postponed when autumn temperate and An increase in the number was increased．The climatic change will lead to plant phenology’s change, which we should schedule the agriculture and forestry according to. At the same time, climatic forecasting has important value to guiding agriculture and forestry. |
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