主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

• 快报 • 上一篇    

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统

路爽1;廖国进1;李喜有1;侯亚红2   

  1. 1.沈阳市气象局 沈阳110168;2.辽宁省气象影视中心 沈阳110016
  • 收稿日期:2005-06-15 修回日期:2005-08-30 出版日期:2006-02-01 发布日期:2006-02-01

Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system

LU Shuang 1 LIAO Guojin 1 LI Xiyou 1 HOU Yahong 2   

  1. 1.Shenyang Meteorological Bureau;Shenyang 110168; 2.Liaoning Meteorological Video Center;Shenyang 110016
  • Received:2005-06-15 Revised:2005-08-30 Online:2006-02-01 Published:2006-02-01

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摘要： 沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。

关键词: MOS预报, MOS预报集成, 概率预报, TS评分, Brier评分

Abstract: Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system could provide with precipitation probability prediction,based on REEP method and MOS forecasting equations from Japanese numerical weather prediction production and multiple statistical methods.TS verification technique indicated that the accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS forecasting equations was higher than that from Japanese numerical weather prediction.The accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS integration forecast was higher than that from the average one of all kinds of the statistical methods.The Brier verification technique of forecasting precipitation probability showed that REEP method based on several MOS forecast methods could give the best prediction.