| 王书裕. 1984. 作物产量的预报方法[J]. 气象学报, 42(3):349-355, doi:10.11676/qxxb1984.040 |
| 作物产量的预报方法 |
| A STATISTICAL FORECASTING METHOD OF CROP YIELD |
| 投稿时间：1982-08-31 修订日期：1983-08-08 |
| DOI：10.11676/qxxb1984.040 |
| 中文关键词: |
| 英文关键词: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文用调和权重法处理产量资料,分析产量趋势离差与500mb环流因子的关系,选取7个环流特征值建立产量预报模式:ŷi+1=(yi+ω)拟合与试报的效果较好。最后讨论了提高预报时效、环流因子所反映的生育期气象条件特点等问题。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper the data of yield are treated with the harmonic-weighing method and the relation between the deviation of the yield trend and the parameter of the 500mb atmospheric circulation is analysed. Seven parameters of the 500 mb circulation are selected out to establish the formulas for crop yield forecast. It is found that the formulas fit the data quite well and that the results of the forecasting are good. |
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