| 岳江.大同地区降水变化特征及趋势分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(3):26~31 |
| 大同地区降水变化特征及趋势分析 |
| Variation Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Datong Region |
| 投稿时间：2012-10-09 修订日期：2012-11-07 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 降水 变化 趋势 |
| 英文关键词:Precipitation Change Trend |
| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201217) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据大同地区8个县市1972-2009年逐日气温、降水量数据，采用趋势分析、Mann－Kendall突变检验和R/S分析法研究了大同地区年降水量时间序列和空间序列变化规律，结果表明：大同地区降水量和汛期降水量均呈缓慢减少趋势。2001年前后大同地区各县市年降水趋势发生扭转，大部分县市降水量呈少量增加趋势。1972-2009年，大同地区汛期降水高频周期以准3年周期为主，同时存在准15年的低频周期。从低频周期变化可以看出1973-1978年、1990-1997年、2004-2009年为多雨期；1982-1986年、1997-2001年为少雨期。1993-1996年，大同地区高频周期转为准5年，同时叠加准15年的低频周期。大同地区各县市年降水量存在明显的Hurst现象，大部分县市降水量未来变化基本保持现有减少趋势，个别县市降水量未来变化趋势不明显。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using daily temperature and precipitation data of 8 cities in Datong from 1972 to 2009, we analyzed the time and space sequence changes law of Datong region by using of the trend analysis, Mann－Kendall mutation testing, R/S analysis. The result showed that: the annual and flood season precipitation were slowly reducing, there are more different in individual years. Around 2001, the precipitation of Datong region changed greatly, the precipitation of more cities were increasing. From 1972 to 2009, the flood season precipitation high frequency cycle of Datong region was main of 3 years, at the same time, the 15 years low frequency cycle existed. It obviously showed that there were two periods such as the more precipitation period in 1973-1978, 1990-1997,2004-2009, the less precipitation was in 1982-1986,1997-2001. The precipitation of Datong region existed the Hurst phenomenon, more cities precipitation changes in future will keep decreasing trend of present, individual cities precipitation trend were not obviously. |
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