| 周晓宇,赵春雨.辽宁省新旧气候平均值变化及影响分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2023,17(3):149~156 |
| 辽宁省新旧气候平均值变化及影响分析 |
| Analysis of the changes in the old and new climate averages and impacts in Liaoning Province |
| 投稿时间：2021-11-24 修订日期：2022-05-11 |
| DOI：10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2023.03.020 |
| 中文关键词: 气候平均值 气候业务 气候变化 辽宁省 |
| 英文关键词:Climate averages climate operations climate change Liaoning province |
| 基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2021J047）、中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201841、CCSF202013）资助。 |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 578 |
| 全文下载次数: 252 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 使用辽宁省61个气象站1961—2020年逐日气温和降水量数据，对比分析了1991—2020年和1981—2010年新旧气候平均值变化对辽宁省气候业务的影响。结果表明：1—11月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均增温，3月增幅最大；降水量有7个月增加，秋末冬初（10—12月）尤其是11月增幅最大。年及四季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均增加，自东西部山区向中部平原地区增加，辽中区域增幅最显著；平均气温和平均最高气温均以春季增幅最大，平均最低气温夏季为升温最显著区域（除辽中地区）。年、夏季和秋季降水量减少，春季和冬季增加；盛夏（7—8月）降水量总体减少，东部山区和大连沿海地区降水量增加；主汛期（7月下旬—8月上旬）降水量增加，辽西和辽南增幅最多在5%~6%之间，辽北最少。气候平均值改变后，四季平均气温评价等级发生了变化，夏季、秋季和冬季均偏高1级，向正距平变化，发生概率分别为17%、22%、和20%，冬季偏低1级，向负距平变化，发生概率为10%；冬季、春季和夏季降水量向偏高1级变化，发生概率分别为40%、13%和22%，秋季向偏低1级变化，发生概率为28%。过去的冷暖冬、极端气候事件等评价结论需要重新考虑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using day-by-day temperature and precipitation data from 61 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2020, the impact of changes in the old and new climate averages on climate operations in Liaoning Province from 1991 to 2020 and from 1981 to 2010 was compared and analysed. The results show that：the average temperature, average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature all increased from January to November, with the largest increase in March; precipitation increased in seven months, with the largest increase in late autumn and early winter (October to December), especially in November. The annual and four-season average, average maximum and average minimum temperatures all increase, from the mountainous areas in the east and west to the central plains, with the most significant increase in the Liaozhong region; both the average and average maximum temperatures increase most in spring, and the average minimum temperature is the most significant warming region in summer (except for the Liaozhong region). Precipitation decreases in the year, summer and autumn, and increases in spring and winter; Precipitation in the summer (July-August) decreases in general, but increases in the eastern mountainous areas and coastal areas of Dalian; precipitation in the main flood season (late July-early August) increases, with a maximum increase of 5%-6% in western Liaoning and southern Liaoning, and the least in northern Liaoning. The change in climatic mean resulted in a change in the rating of the four seasonal mean temperature，A change of 1 level towards a positive range in summer, autumn and winter, with a probability of 17%, 22% and 20% respectively, and a 1 level towards a negative range in winter, with a probability of 10%. Winter, spring and summer precipitation vary towards the high 1 level with a probability of 40%, 13% and 22% respectively, while autumn varies towards the low 1 level with a probability of 28%. Past evaluation conclusions such as cold and warm winters and extreme weather events need to be reconsidered. |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
|
|