关键词: 碳强度目标分解, 聚类分析, 地区差异

Abstract: To meet China’s CO₂ intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis was developed. The 30 provinces were classified into 6 groups based on economy, emission and reduction potential indicators. Under equity principle, the two most developed groups are assigned the highest reduction targets (55% and 65% respectively), however their reduction potential is limited. Under efficiency principle, the 2 groups with highest reduction potential take the highest targets (48% and 61% respectively), but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with prominent reduction potential takes the highest target (54%), and the 2nd and 3rd groups with large industry scale take the second highest target (49%). Whereas under the 3 allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and 6th group, which have relatively low economic ability, emission and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic ability and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanism and policy instrument should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.

Key words: CO₂ intensity reduction target allocation, cluster analysis, regional difference