| 安莉娟.近44a毛乌素沙地西缘气候特征及其未来可能变化趋势[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):25~31 |
| 近44a毛乌素沙地西缘气候特征及其未来可能变化趋势 |
| The characteristics ofclimate changes in western edge of Mu UsSandy Land During the past 44 years and Estimation of future climatetrend |
| 投稿时间：2017-02-28 修订日期：2017-05-26 |
| DOI：10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2017.04.004 |
| 中文关键词: 气温 降水量 相对湿度 hurst指数 毛乌素沙地西缘 |
| 英文关键词:Temperature Precipitation Relative humidity Hurst index The western edge of Mu UsSandy Land |
| 基金项目:内蒙古自然基金“有效降水下限在地区干旱评估中的应用与评估”项目(2016MS0376)和内蒙古地方标准项目共同资助 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用1971-2014年毛乌素沙地西缘气象资料分析了气温、降水、相对湿度时空变化特征,采用R/S分析法来预测未来的毛乌素沙地西缘气候要素可能变化趋势。结果表明：1)近44a毛乌素沙地西缘地区气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈弱的上升趋势,相对湿度呈弱的下降趋势,二者趋势不显著。未来毛乌素沙地西缘地区气温仍呈上升趋势可能性较大,降水量可能变为减少趋势,相对湿度变化不稳定；2)近44a毛乌素沙地西缘气温空间分布呈南高北低,降水和相对湿度均呈东多西少,各气候要素的气候倾向率存在明显的区域性差异,中部地区气温增幅较大,东部降水增加幅度较多,相对湿度北部减少速率较慢；3)毛乌素沙地西缘气温、降水、相对湿度存在明显的周期性振荡,平均气温主要存在4-5a、10-12a尺度左右的周期振荡,降水量存在4-6a尺度左右的周期振荡,相对湿度存在4-6a尺度左右的周期振荡。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity in the western margin of Mu Us sandy land were analyzed by using the meteorological data from 1971 to 2014, and R / S method was used to predict the future climate change trend. The results showed that: 1) The temperature of the western margin of Mu Us sandy land increased significantly in the past 44 years and the rate of rise was 0.33°C/10a. Precipitation showed a weak upward trend and relative humidity showed a weak decreasing trend, but the two trend was not significant. In the future, the temperature of the western edge of Mu Us sandy land is likely to still rising, precipitation will become decreasing and relative humidity is not stable; 2) The spatial distribution of temperature in the west margin of Mu Us sandy land in the recent 44 years was in the south and north. Precipitation and relative humidity are in the east and west. There are obvious regional differences in climatic tendency of each climate element, the temperature increased greatly in the central region, and the precipitation increased more in the east than in the west, and the relative humidity in the south decreased faster than that in the north; 3) The temperature, precipitation and relative humidity of the western margin of Mu Us sandy land have obvious periodical oscillation in the recent 44 years. The average temperature is mainly 4-5a, 10-12 scales around the period of oscillation, precipitation exists 4-6a scale periodic oscillations and relative humidity is 4-6a scale periodic oscillations. |
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