| 摘要: |
| 采用运动曲率数学模型,研究热带气旋异常路径的成因,得到的主要结果是:热带气旋路径曲率及其变化与科氏力参数、环境场气压分布、热带气旋的移速及涡旋动力结构、下垫面摩擦力等因子有关;当各类影响因子渐变至满足月尖突变判据时,出现演变曲线的折叠区,随着外源参数变化,一旦解移出折叠区,热带气旋便可发生移向突变,出现各类异常轨迹。 |
| 关键词: 曲率 数学模型 热带气旋 异常路径 月尖突变 |
| DOI： |
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| THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MOTION CURVATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) AND THE SUDDEN CHANGE CRITERION OF THE CRESCENT POINT FORM OF TC ANOMALOUS TRACK |
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Xu Xiangde1, Xie Yiyang2
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1.Acoiemy of Meteorology Science, Beijing, 100081;2.Tianjin Meteorology Observatory
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| Abstract: |
| The effects and causes of abnormal tracks of tropical cyclones are studied using the mathematical model of motion curvature. It is found that the changes in curvature of thetropical cyclone tracks are related with Coriolis parameter, ambient pressure distribution, moving speed, vortex dynamics and frictional force for the underlying surface. When these factors gradually change to meet the criterion of the so - called " crescent point " and superimpose evolving curves, the solution moves out of the superimposing domain as result of changes inexternal sources, the tropical cyclone will change direction abruptly, leaving abnrmal tracks. |
| Key words: Correlation curvature formula Tropical cyclone Anomaly track Mathematical model Cusp Catastrophe |
