| 张超,贾健.ECMWF细网格2m温度产品在乌鲁木齐市温度预报中的检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(5):62~68 |
| ECMWF细网格2m温度产品在乌鲁木齐市温度预报中的检验 |
| The Application and test of ECMWF Refined Net Numerical 2m temperature Forecast Data in temperature forecasting in Urumqi |
| 投稿时间：2015-03-07 修订日期：2015-05-19 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: ECMWF细网格 温度检验 2m温度 乌鲁木齐 |
| 英文关键词:ECMWF Refined Net temperature test 2m temperature |
| 基金项目:中国沙漠气象科学研究基金 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用2011年7月至2014年6月的ECMWF细网格2m温度预报产品,采用格点映射站点和双线性插值法挑选最优预报参考格点,并用天气学检验方法,对该模式在不同季节、不同天气时的乌鲁木齐市温度预报能力进行检验。检验表明：该产品对制作乌鲁木齐未来24小时温度预报具有很好的指导意义,全年的最高最低温度预报准确率为74～75％,季节变化明显,夏半年的预报准确率高出冬半年10～25％；模式对降雨、降雪时的温度预报较好,大雾时最差,并且会使最低气温预报严重低于实况,对东南风时最高气温预报好于最低气温；该产品整体上在准确率和稳定性上均优于中央台指导预报,在春季具有明显优势,高低温正技巧可达0.4℃。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using ECMWF Refined Net Numerical 2m temperature Forecast Data from July 2011 to June 2014, Grid mapping site and bilinear interpolation method are used to select the excellent reference point, finally apply the synoptic testing method to test its temperature forecasting ability in different seasons and different weather in Urumqi. The result shows that it is helpful to making temperature forecast nest 24 hours, annual maximum and minimum temperature prediction accuracy is 74～75%, and it has obvious seasonal variation, the forecast accuracy in summer half year is 10～25% higher than in winter half year; forecast accuracy of temperature is better in rainy days and snowy days, worse in foggy days , And the actual minimum temperature significantly below the temperature of forecast , the forecast accuracy of maximum temperature is better than the forecast accuracy of minimum temperature when Southeast wind happens ; The accuracy and stability of ECMWF Refined Net Numerical 2m temperature Forecast Data are better than guidance forecast data of national meteorogical center of CMA, and has obvious advantages in spring, positive skill of maximum and minimum temperature can reach 0.4 ℃. |
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