| 王晨稀,倪允琪. 2011. 影响热带气旋路径的敏感性试验与研究[J]. 气象学报, 69(5):757-769, doi:10.11676/qxxb2011.067 |
| 影响热带气旋路径的敏感性试验与研究 |
| Sensitivity experiments of impacting tropical cyclone track |
| 投稿时间：2009-03-09 修订日期：2011-06-14 |
| DOI：10.11676/qxxb2011.067 |
| 中文关键词: 热带气旋，路径，敏感区域，扰动，不确定性 |
| 英文关键词:Tropical cyclone, Track, Sensitive area, Perturbation, Uncertainty |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究项目（2009CB421506）和国家自然科学基金项目（40921160381、41075071、40875025、40605018） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对热带气旋观测中的敏感区域问题，用数值模拟的方法，以GRAPES-CM为试验模式，对登陆中国的2个热带气旋“派比安”与“圣帕”进行了敏感性试验，并通过模拟其他4个热带气旋路径对试验结果进行了验证。结果显示，初始场的不确定性导致了热带气旋路径的不确定性，但初始场中涡旋场的变化对路径几乎没有影响，环境场中位于涡旋外、距热带气旋中心约500 km以内的环区是影响路径的敏感区域，该区域初始场不确定性的大小决定了路径不确定性的大小；环区中不同区域的扰动在模拟过程中的发展存在差异，使不同区域的变化对路径的影响存在差异，这种差异与热带气旋所处的环境场形势有关；不同高度对路径的影响也存在差异，高层与低层的变化对路径的影响很小，环境引导气流所在中层的变化对路径的影响很大。这些结果可以为中国开展热带气旋观测提供一些依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Aimed at the sensitive area issue in tropical cyclone (TC) observation, the GRAPES-CM is used to make sensitivity experiments for the TC Prapiroon and the TC Sepat which made landfall at China. The results are compared with the simulative results for the tracks of four other tropical cyclones. The comparative results show that the uncertainty in the initial fields leads to the track uncertainty, but the initial vortex uncertainty has nearly no impact on the track. The cirque in the environmental field is the sensitive area which impacts the TC track. The cirque’s inner boundary borders the vortex. The distance between the cirque’s outer boundary and the TC center is about 500 km. The uncertainty magnitude in the cirque initial fields determines the track uncertainty magnitude. In the cirque, the perturbations in the different area grow differently during the simulation, resulting in that the changes in the different area are able to impact the track differently. This difference is related to the TC environmental pattern. At the different height the impacts on the TC track differently as well. The changes in the high or low layers have little impact on the track while the impact of the changes in the middle layers on the track is high. The middle layers’ mean wind is just the environmental steering flow which governs the TC motion. Basis can be obtained from these results for the TC observations made in China in the near future. |
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