| 摘要: |
| 根据实际应用中统计预报对相关系数的基本要求,利用相关分析探讨了用赤道东太平洋海温预测西太平洋热带气旋年际变化的可行性。同时,利用谱分析方法探讨了这种预报的有效性和局限性。主要结论是:用区域(5°N—5°S,90—150°W)的平均海温预测西太平洋热带气旋的年际变化,效果比使用赤道东太平洋海温好,用前者可预测西太平洋中区各类热带气旋的年际变化,用后者只能预测西太平洋全区及中区热带气旋总体的年际变化,对达到热带风暴或台风的热带气旋的年际变化则分别是勉强能或不能预测;用赤道东太平洋海温无法预测南海热带气旋的年际变化;用赤道东太平洋海温预测西太平洋热带气旋活动实际上只对年际变化中的ENSO(3—5年)周期及准二年周期有效。 |
| 关键词: 赤道东太平洋海温 西太平洋热带气旋 相关分析 谱分析 |
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| INVESTIGATION OF THE STATISTICAL FORECAST OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC |
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Jiang Guorong, Sha Wenyu
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Meterological Institute of Air Force, Nanjing, 211101
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| Abstract: |
| According to the basic requirements for correlation coefficient arisen in statistic forecast practice. the feasibility is studied of forecasting the interannual change of West Pacific tropical cyclones using eastern equatorial Pacific SST. In the meantime, the effectiveness and limitations of this forecast method is discussed with spectral analyses. |
| Key words: SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific Correlation analysis Spectral analysis |
