Abstract:
To better understand and improve the forecast performance of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures in Guang’an city, Using ECMWF high-resolution numerical forecasting model (hereinafter referred to as EC) temperature forecasting products to test the daily minimum and maximum temperatures in 2015-2017.The results show that the EC model predicts the minimum temperature and the correct rate is higher. The maximum temperature is predicted, and the correct rate fluctuates greatly. It shows an obvious “V” type change with the month, and it is the lowest in July and August in midsummer. The forecast error is extended by time and slightly increased; the minimum temperature error is less than the maximum temperature error; the minimum temperature error has no significant difference in each month, and the maximum temperature error is the largest in July and August in midsummer. The regional difference in the effect of the minimum temperature forecast is not obvious; the effect of the maximum temperature forecast is greatly affected by the terrain. According to the revised indicators, the temperature correction forecast can effectively improve the forecast accuracy rate. The EC model predicts that the maximum temperature is too small at high temperature. After correction, the correct time rate of each station is obviously improved, and the correct rate is increased by 20.6 to 91.3%, which has a high reference value.