基于BCC_CSM模式的山西省盛夏降水降尺度预测
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山西省气象局重点课题(SXKZDQH20185103)、中央引导地方科技发展专项(ZY18C12)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(2017YFA0603701)资助


A Statistical Downscaling Method for Midsummer Precipitation Prediction in Shanxi Based on BCC_CSM Model
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    摘要:

    降尺度方法是目前弥补气候系统模式预测结果不足的重要手段,为获得具有较高预测技巧的山西盛夏降水客观化预测产品,本文选取1990—2017年6月起报的BCC_CSM气候系统模式输出盛夏结果和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料同时与山西盛夏降水异常典型模态具有统计显著的因子,利用逐步回归方法建立了山西盛夏降水降尺度模型。进一步研究发现,降尺度模型的预测能力与BCC_CSM对影响山西盛夏降水关键区海温的预测技巧密切相关。检验回报与观测的时间和空间距平相关系数(TCC和ACC)、回报与观测的距平符号一致率(PC)以及趋势异常综合评分(PS),表明降尺度模型对山西盛夏降水的预测技巧较BCC_CSM输出有明显改进,BCC_CSM模拟降水TCC在山西全区没有通过95%信度检验,降尺度模型回报TCC在山西大部分地区通过95%信度检验,中南部通过99%信度检验;相应的ACC由-0.02提高到0.35,PC由53.3%提高到66.8%,PS由65.6%提高到78.9%。2018年盛夏业务试运行,ACC为0.42,PS为70.8%。

    Abstract:

    The prediction skills for climate models can be improved by using the statistical downscaling method. In order to gain better and objective midsummer precipitation prediction in Shanxi, a statistical downscaling method for the midsummer precipitation anomaly in Shanxi is studied based on BCC_CSM output, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) and station precipitation in Shanxi during 1990-2017. The typical anomalous patterns of midsummer precipitation in Shanxi are analyzed, and then predictors associated with SST from BCC_CSM output are identified in term of statistical significance to the typical anomalous patterns of midsummer precipitation in Shanxi. The multifactor stepwise regression is used in statistical downscaling prediction. The improvement of prediction skills in downscaling results are apparent, as measured by the temporal and spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (TCC and ACC), the prediction consistency of the anomaly sign (PC), and the prediction score (PS) between hindcasts and observations. TCC from downscaling results crosses the 95% significance threshold in most parts of Shanxi and exhibits 99% confidence level in the middlesouthern Shanxi, and the simulated precipitation from BCC_CSM shows too small value to reach statistical significance in Shanxi. ACC increases from -0.02 for BCC_CSM to 0.35 for downscaling results, and the corresponding PC and PS are improved from 53.3% to 66.8% and from 65.6% to 78.9%, respectively. In the operational midsummer precipitation prediction in 2018 by using above downscaling method, ACC is 0.42 and PS is 70.8%.

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张冬峰,王永光,张国宏.基于BCC_CSM模式的山西省盛夏降水降尺度预测[J].气象科技,2019,47(4):622~630

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  • 收稿日期:2018-07-28
  • 定稿日期:2019-01-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-08-27
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