| 近55 a来安阳日照时数变化趋势及未来变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文：贾成刚,丁治英,张玉峰,吴长春,张心令,袁志江.近55 a来安阳日照时数变化趋势及未来变化趋势分析[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(3):59-62..Trend Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Recent 55 years and in Future in Anyang[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2010,33(3):59-62. |
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| 作者姓名：贾成刚 丁治英 张玉峰 吴长春 张心令 袁志江 |
| 作者单位：1.南京信息工程大学，南京210044；2.安阳市气象局，河南 安阳455000；3.河南省气象局法规处，郑州 450003 |
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| 中文摘要:依据安阳市近60 a（1954-2008年）逐年和逐月日照观测数据，运用线性倾向估计法和Mann-Kendall法，分析了安阳市日照时数的年际和季节变化趋势。在此基础上，运用Hurst指数对该市未来日照时数变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：安阳市年日照时数总体呈减少趋势；日照时数季节差异较为明显，趋势明显程度依次为冬季>夏季>秋季>春季；在未来一时期内，安阳年日照时数仍保持与过去55 a的变化趋势，呈减少趋势。 |
| 中文关键词:Mann-Kendall检验 Hurst指数 日照时数 变化趋势 |
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| Trend Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Recent 55 years and in Future in Anyang |
| Authors:Jia Chenggang Ding Zhiying Zhang Yufeng Wu Changchun Zhang Xinling Yuan Zhijiang |
| Affiliations:1. Nanjing University of Information Scinence and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. Anyang Meteorological Office, Anyang 455000, China;3. Regulation Department of Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract:Based on yearly and monthly data on sunshine duration in Anyang from 1954 to 2008, the change trend of yearly and quarterly sunshine duration were analyzed by using linear-trend estimation method and Mann-Kendall test. On the basis of it, the future trend of yearly sunshine duration was estimated by using Hurst index. The result showed that during recent 55 years sunshine duration decreased in Anyang as a whole. The seasonal difference in sunshine duration was evident, and decreasing amplitude in season was winter, summer, autumn and spring in turn. The future variation trend of sunshine duration in Anyang was decreasing trend, the same as that of sunshine duration in recent 55 years. |
| Keywords:Mann-Kendall test Hurst index sunshine duration change trend |
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