近54年艾比湖绿洲太阳辐射变化特征
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国家自然科学基(41771470,U1303381、41261090),自治区重点实验室专项基金(2016D03001);自治区科技支疆项目(201591101);教育部促进与美大地区科研合作与高层次人才培养项目共同资助


Characteristics of Solar Radiation in Aibi Lake in Recent 54 Years
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    摘要:

    太阳辐射是最基本、最重要的能量来源,分析其变化对区域气候特色和农业发展有着重要的作用。本文利用1961—2013年艾比湖绿洲地区4个气象站点气象资料,采用最小二乘分析法、距平分析法、MannKendall趋势分析法和小波分析等方法,分析了艾比湖绿州地区太阳辐射的年际变化趋势。研究结果表明:①该地区年辐射量总体呈现下降趋势,相对变化幅度为128,波动相较平稳。年内辐射量主要集中在5—8月,占全年的52%,呈正态分布状态,年内各月都呈下降趋势,其中7月的下降速率最大。②艾比湖绿洲的总辐射量主要集中在春夏两季,且4个季节的变化趋势基本相同,均出现了从“变亮”到“变暗”的交替过程。通过检验阈值在99%的水平下显示,辐射量在1986年出现突变。全年总辐射量的变动与四季变化趋势基本相同。③对于21 a、10 a和7 a周期变化都存在着相对“亮期”和相对“暗期”,但振荡周期不同。

    Abstract:

    Solar radiation is the most basic and important energy source of the earth surface. It is very important to analyze the change of the solar radiation for regional climate and agricultural development. This study uses the meteorological data of 4 meteorological stations in the Ebinur Lake oasis area from 1961 to 2013 and the methods of the least squares discriminant analysis, anomaly analysis, MannKendall trend analysis and wavelet analysis to analyze the periodic change regularity of the solar radiation. The results show that: (1) The annual amount of radiation decreased with a relative change rate of 128; the fluctuation was relatively stable. The amount of radiation was mainly concentrated in the period from May to August, accounting for 52% of the year, which showed a normal distribution. A downward trend can be found in all months, with the decline rate being the largest in July. (2) The total amount of radiation in the Ebinur Lake oasis mainly concentrated in summer and autumn; the change trends of the four seasons were basically the same; there appeared the alternative process from lighting to dimming. Through the threshold test at the level of 99%, the amount of radiation showed a mutation in 1986 The change of annual total radiation was basically the same with changes of radiation in four seasons. (3) For the 21year, 10year, and 7year period cycles, there were relatively bright and dark periods, but the oscillation periods were different.

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谭娇,丁建丽,陈文倩,董煜,张钧泳,唐梦迎.近54年艾比湖绿洲太阳辐射变化特征[J].气象科技,2018,46(3):532~538

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  • 收稿日期:2017-05-05
  • 定稿日期:2017-12-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-06-28
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