| 居丽丽,史 军,张 敏.1961-2015年华东地区极端气温变化研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2020,14(3):112~121 |
| 1961-2015年华东地区极端气温变化研究 |
| Study on extreme temperature changes in East China during 1961–2015 |
| 投稿时间：2019-02-22 修订日期：2019-04-23 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 极端气温 时空变化趋势 气候突变 概率密度函数 华东 |
| 英文关键词:temperature extremes spatial-temporal trend abrupt change of climate probability density function East China |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(41571044)；中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201716) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 3267 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于华东399个气象站点逐日最高、最低气温数据，利用极端气候指数软件RClimdex和线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、概率密度函数等气候统计诊断方法，分析了华东极端气候的时空变化特征。结果表明，1961-2015年期间，华东最低气温极大值和极小值分别以0.2℃/10a和0.6℃/10a的趋势显著增加，最高气温极小值以0.3℃/10a的趋势显著增加，结冰、霜冻、冷夜和冷昼日数分别以0.5d/10a、3.7d/10a、2.0%/10a和0.7%/10a显著减少，夏天日数、热夜日数、暖夜和暖昼日数分别以2.9d/10a、2.8d/10a、1.8%/10a和0.8%/10a显著增加。期间华东最低和最高气温极值均发生升高突变，霜冻和结冰日数、冷夜和冷昼日数分别在20世纪80年代中后期和90年代发生减少突变，夏天日数、热夜日数、暖夜和暖昼日数则在2000年发生增多突变。与1961-1990年期间相比，1991-2015年间华东最低和最高气温极值的概率密度函数分布均右移，峰值多增大；霜冻、结冰、冷夜和冷昼日数的分布函数左移，峰值升高，形状变窄，而夏天日数、热夜日数、暖夜和暖昼日数恰好相反。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 399 meteorological stations in East China, the temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature extremes in East China were analyzed with climatically statistical methods, including the extremes climate index software - RClimdex, the linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall test and the fitting of probability density function. The results indicate that the maximum and the minimum value of the lowest temperature increased significantly at 0.2 °C and 0.6 °C per decade, respectively, and the minimum value of highest temperature increased significantly at 0.3 °C per decade in East China during 1961-2015. Meanwhile, the number of ice days, frost days, cold nights and cold days were significantly reduced by 0.5 days, 3.7 days, 2.0% and 0.7% per decade, respectively, and that of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights and warm days were significantly increased by 2.9 days, 2.8 days, 1.8% and 0.8% per decade, respectively. During the period, both the maximum and the minimum value of temperature showed an abrupt increased change in East China. The number of ice days, frost days, cold nights and cold days showed an abrupt decreased change in the middle-to-late 1980s and 1990s, while the number of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights and warm days were abrupt increased in 2000. Compared to the distribution of probability density function during the period 1961-1990, the distribution for the maximum and the minimum value of temperature were both shifted to the right, and the peaks were increased during the period of 1991-2015. The distribution of ice days, frost days, cold nights and cold days were all shifted to the left, the peaks increased and the shapes narrowed, while the summer days, tropical nights, warm nights and warm days are opposite. |
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