Abstract:
In this study,the model ability in predicting two heavy rain events over Sichuan basin on 27 July 2017 and 26 July 2018 were verifies with the products of SWCWARMS Model,the performance of SWCWARMS Model for 12hr,24hr numerical forecasting and conventional observation data.Three advantages of SWCWARMS model products in heavy rainfall forecast are obtained.SWCWARMS model has a good prediction effect on the precipitation intensity and range of two heavy precipitation processes,especially the precipitation intensity is more prominent.The model has a good performance for evolvement and major adjustment of circulation pattern in Asia middle and high latitude area,therefore,they can forecast the severe disaster weathers ahead.In addition,SWCWARMS model has a good prediction effect on specific humidity and unstable energy CAPE.At the same time,need to pay attention to two aspects.On the one hand,the weather system over the plateau are systematically weak,on the another hand,low-level wind speed forecast is weak and the deviation of wind direction forecast directly leads to the forecast deviation of heavy precipitation.